Info

Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
RSS Feed Subscribe in iTunes
2017
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2016
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2015
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2014
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2013
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2012
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


Categories

All Episodes
Archives
Categories
Now displaying: Category: general

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Sep 22, 2017

Jeffrey Tucker is an American economics writer of the Austrian School, an advocate of anarcho-capitalism and Bitcoin, and has authored seven books. Jeffrey’s new book, coming out September 2017, is titled “Right Wing Collectivism: The Other Threat to Liberty.”

Michael and Jeffrey start the conversation talking information. Regimes come and go, but information we share with one another cuts through governments. Interactions with others and the tools we use to spread information are what shapes history, rather than governments trying to put their spin on it. Government officials are not visionaries, they do not define the world, they do not create history. They spend their term in office gearing up to get elected for their next term in office. The more responsibility taken out of government’s hands the better. This leads us to Bitcoin…

Why is Bitcoin so important? Bitcoin represents freedom. It’s an international currency, trades the same globally and has increased in value over time. Jeffery has been studying monetary theory since he was an undergraduate. He wrote his thesis on the gold standard and assumed he had the monetary system figured out. So naturally, when Bitcoin came out, he dismissed the idea. After a few years went by, he was forced to acknowledge the advancement of crypto currency. He now looks at markets far differently than he did in the first part of his career. He knows that the markets know much more than any person could ever understand.

Jeffrey switches the conversation to another passionate subject for him, child labor laws. Youth have bought into the idea of needing a college degree to get the right job. Parents see pushing higher education on their children as a way of guaranteeing their children’s success. Unfortunately, degrees are not necessary in today’s age. Youth unemployment and child labor is a major leading factor to issues later in life. Many kids never have their first job until after they graduate from college and every year thousands of college students graduate still dependent on their parents.

Michael and Jeffrey finish up the podcast discussing corporate taxes and building digital walls. The American economy would experience spectacular gains if corporate taxes were slashed. Cutting personal income tax would be nice, however corporate income taxes being cut is the first phase of reform. Our economy also is being hurt by slowing down the flow of information and trying to block it. Is the world going in the direction of building digital walls? Are governments slowing down growth potential by blocking information? Absolutely.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Liberty
  • Friedrich Hayek
  • Crypto currency
  • Ledger technology
  • Block chains
  • Excessive waves of hysteria
  • College debt
  • Tax laws
  • Trump administration
  • Nation state
  • Building blocks for a civilized society
Sep 18, 2017

Recently after running sprints, Michael decided to walk home a different way. He ended up walking next to a woman with an artificial foot. She was about 4’9″, 75lbs, missing a foot but looked as if she was still kicking ass. From Michael’s perspective, she had no excuses. She was not sitting at home, complaining. Too many these days complain about their weight, gender, political views, political correctness, etc. — and use anything they can as an excuse for why life is unfair.

How do you break free from that mentality? What is the process? What system should be put in place? Creating a routine is a great place to start and has many self-help advantages. Having a routine can help center a person and allow them to measure and see personal achievement.

News prevents us from living authentically. It is not real. It is something thrown at us on a daily basis with an agenda by those creating it. The same can be said for politics. A true experience is you walking down the street and noticing what is going on — taking in the sights, sounds and smells of your environment and making decisions about your life based on those experiences. As shown in news and in politics, this type of thinking is rapidly disappearing. There is nothing rational about how people think. People are crazy and that will never change.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Having a system/routine
  • Life is a series of choices
  • Finding meaning in life
  • Lemmings
  • How your actions define you
  • Learning from others and experiences
  • American politics
Sep 15, 2017

Rayner Teo is a 29-year old self-made, independent, ex-prop trader from Singapore. He also is the most followed trader in Singapore. Where does Rayner stand, in numbers, with social media followers? He has about 22,000 followers on YouTube and his Facebook community consists of about 15,000. Most of his followers love what he does, however, with every public figure there are always haters. Rayner gives his perspective on his social media reach and how to deal with trolls.

Rayner entered the military (mandatory) at age 19. 97% of men entering the military end up in the same training camp, however Rayner was placed in an elite camp of men who are the first to go into combat — due to a glitch on his part in his application. Even though life was hard during his time in the military, it did award him his first “aha” moment — he realized his mind was much stronger than his body. He was able to take his body far past limitations that his mind had set. The military also promoted a mind frame of excellence, and that has been a driving force in his life.

Throughout the episode Rayner expands on: the importance of charting wins and charting losses, the true reality of trading, preparing for the big losses so you can wait for the big wins and taking responsibility for your losses so there is opportunity to learn from them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Social media
  • Pitfalls of trading contests
  • Charting performance
  • Predicting trading outcomes
  • Best trading strategies for part time traders
  • Filtering out noise
  • Taking 100% responsibility for the good and bad in life
Sep 11, 2017

Dan Pena is a high performance coach, philanthropist, businessman and author. He has seen every type of business imaginable. He brings an attitude that inspires and provokes action.

The pussification of America has come to fruition through low self-esteem individuals creating a snowflake generation. Youth today are being raised by beta males who aren’t teaching them how to live strong, persistent and driven lives. Dan explains why the lack of alpha males in today’s society is the root of the politically correct driven culture.

When someone has a beta personality, they tend to be less than a high performance achiever. High performance people succeed because they get things done. They walk the walk on a consistent basis. They do not live a sheltered, PC life. How do they accomplish this? Picking the right friends is the first key to success. Pushing yourself to be around others who inspire, will lead to you being inspired. When kids are around other kids looking for success, they are given a much higher probability of becoming successful.

Dan doesn’t have a subtle, gentle teaching style – as anyone can sense from this podcast. His students regularly ask him, “Why are you so mean? Why do you use such harsh language?” He responds by saying, “Because life is hard.” Most people want change, but they only want change that conforms to their definition — and that is not change. That is staying the same.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Lack of leadership in today’s society
  • Alpha males
  • Beta males
  • Getting out of victim mode
  • Political correctness syndrome
  • Snowflakes
Sep 8, 2017

Robert Sutton is Professor of Management science at the Stanford Engineering School and researcher in the field of Evidence-based management. Sutton is also the best-selling author of “The No Asshole Rule.” What does it mean to live in a “no asshole environment”? It means to weed out the people who demean and make you and others feel horrible. He gives the science and craft behind how to deal with assholes, how to prune these people from your life and get out of negative situations.

But the question ever since that book has been:

“Help, I’m dealing with an asshole! What can I do?”

Sutton has heard that question asked in a thousand different ways. He answers the question in “The Asshole Survival Guide: How to Deal with People Who Treat You Like Dirt”. It shifts focus from building civilized workplaces to providing relief for anybody who feels plagued and pushed around by assholes.

The Asshole Survival Guide delivers a cogent and methodical game plan. Sutton starts with diagnosis—what kind of asshole problem, exactly, are you dealing with? From there, he provides field-tested, evidence-based, and sometimes surprising strategies for dealing with assholes—avoiding them, outwitting them, disarming them, sending them packing, and developing protective psychological armor.

Ultimately, this survival guide is about developing an outlook and personal plan that will help you preserve the sanity in your work life, and will prevent all those perfectly good days from being ruined by some jerk.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The no asshole rule
  • The role of assholes in entrepreneurship
  • Steve Jobs
  • Demeaned and de-energized
  • Self-awareness
  • Depression in relation to to workplace
  • Weeding out nasty people from your life
  • The asshole tax
  • Avoiding “the crazy”
Sep 4, 2017

Jason Calacanis is a venture capitalist, entrepreneur, angel investor, author, blogger and has years of perspective when it comes to investing in start ups. His new book is “Angel: How to Invest in Technology Startups–Timeless Advice from an Angel Investor Who Turned $100,000 into $100,000,000”. Even if you never plan on becoming an angel investor, his book is a great look at how the modern economy works.

Technology is accelerating at an ever-increasing rate and Jason argues that there are approximately 30 million jobs that will disappear in upcoming years due to advancements in technology. He wrote his book to try and help people step away from the usual way of thinking and look at where the world is moving. For example, the cheapest car you could buy today is far and above more sophisticated than the most expensive car you could have bought 20 years ago. When Jason evaluates a company, he looks at a couple things: What is in the best interest of society? And what is the best technology that we can use to get there?

What is Silicon Valley like through the eyes of someone living and breathing it? Jason talks about Silicon Valley as the center of the world. There is an infectious need to look for the next $100 billion dollar idea rather than the next million dollar idea. It’s also very liberal, political and quirky. It is where the largest amount of high power tech companies derive from.

What is the biggest factor in becoming a successful angel investor? Success in angel investing comes down to portfolio diversification. You need to cast a wide net, knowing you are going to have a lot of loser companies. There are massive implied odds. The upside to finding a winning company far exceeds any amount of losses you may incur. Michael relates this to the Babe Ruth effect and Jason puts his own spin on it, “Finding a winning company is more like the equivalent of a grand slam scoring 100 runs rather than just four.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Creating a global footprint
  • Who is able to export their ideas around the world
  • Silicon Valley
  • Chinese border controls
  • Unicorn companies
  • Portfolio diversification
  • Risk aversion
Sep 1, 2017

Laura Doyle is bestselling author of “The Surrendered Wife”, and her newest work is “The Empowered Wife.” Relationships are a skill just like everything else in life. They can be hard and sometimes and having some basic survival tools could make the difference between having a failed relationship or a thriving relationship. Laura gives a perspective and tools that we can all use in our modern day relationships.

Laura went through thousands of hours and thousands of dollars of marriage counseling that did not work before she tried asking her friends what they were doing right in their relationships. She wanted to learn what was working for them and what hadn’t worked for them over the years. Her main “aha” moment was when she realized the problems her and her husband were having were self inflicted.

Who has the most power in a relationship? How do you make your spouse feel respected? What are some main differences emotionally between men and women? What type of language do men respond best to? What type of language do women respond best to? Laura answers these questions and more on today’s podcast.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Different traits between men and women
  • Femininity
  • Men and Women are more powerful together
  • Self care
  • Spouse fulfilling prophecy
Aug 28, 2017

Michael dives in for a weekly monologue. Listen at your own peril.

Aug 25, 2017

Richard Clarke is co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” Richard was also the former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-terrorism for the United States. He worked for the government starting with Ronald Reagan’s Presidency and continued to move up the ladder until he resigned in 2003 under President George W. Bush’s presidency.

Was there a starting point to Islamist terrorism? Were American’s affected much by the Gulf War? What was some red flags raised about the World Trade Center bombing? What are Cassandras? What did we know, and what were some warning signs at the time of 9-11? Why did we still go to war after 9-11 when the evidence was so lacking to go into Iraq? Michael and Richard go through these questions and many more throughout the podcast. Michael ends the interview asking Richard, “How can you see the next 10 to 20 years unfolding?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Gulf War
  • Islamist terrorism
  • World Trade Center bombing
  • Osama bin Laden
  • The underestimation of Al-Qaida
  • Forcing democracy on the world
  • 9-11
  • War on Iraq
  • Global Warming
Aug 7, 2017

You won’t expect or see this episode coming… First, consider a truism: Asian American students dominate in academia. Asian Americans know that if they get the right scores, and check off all the boxes, they get the good school. However, this is not how it works at Harvard and other Ivy League institutions. They don’t operate based on who has the best test scores.

Michael reads a passage from a New York Times article illustrating the injustices in Harvard’s admission processes. Once one ethnic quota has been filled, that’s it. No more students can me admitted. Public universities handle their admission process differently. Asian Americans make up 34% of The University of California’s student body as apposed to about 15% of Asian Americans allowed to attend the Ivy schools due to diversity regulations.

“America, the home of equality?” This catch phrase has gone by the way side. When students work hard, but then are slapped down because of their race, this goes against the American dream. And when the system turns against you its time to make a choice: Fight against it or walk away? Michael’s answer is counter-intuitive and dovetails with trend following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ivy League quotas
  • The American dream
  • Asian Americans
  • Fair competition
  • The secret sauce myth
  • Letting go
Jul 17, 2017

A new mono… with some freaking edge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Warren Buffett
  • Black box trading
Jul 7, 2017

Andrew Lo is author of “Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought.” He is also the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor of Finance at MIT and the chairman and chief investment strategist of the AlphaSimplex Group.

Andrew was taught from the beginning of his career that the efficient market hypothesis was gospel truth. It was the end-all-be-all. However, he first found a problem with the efficient market hypothesis just after graduating college. He did a test on the “random walk hypothesis” and related his findings from that hypothesis to the markets. He then came to find that his results proved the efficient market hypothesis wrong. Was there pushback during the early stages of talking about EMT being wrong? Absolutely. Andrew was one of the strongest that pushed back primarily because it went against everything he previously knew to be true.

Andrew talks about another study he did with one of his MIT classes in 2004. He looked at hedge funds around that time and through data he proved that they were headed for trouble. They were able to foresee a small piece of the 2008 crash. Michael and Andrew end the podcast talking about Andrew’s new book and the role that the environment is playing in adaptive markets. When studying a species, what should be asked is, “Is it the species that is complex, or is it the environment that is complex and the species is just adapting to it?” Many species have figured out how to live in harsh environments in very different ways. In the same light, there are many different ways that people can trade the market and be successful.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Adaptive markets hypothesis
  • The random walk hypothesis
  • Crowded trade phenomenon
  • 2008 meltdown
  • Paul Samuelson
  • Commodities Corporation
Jul 3, 2017

Steve Burns and Michael Covel get together yet again to discuss all that is trading.

After a lifelong fascination with financial markets, Steve Burns started investing in 1993, and trading his own accounts in 1995. It was love at first trade. A natural teacher with a unique ability to cut through the bull and make complex ideas simple, Steve took to blogging and social media by founding New Trader U in 2011.

Since then, New Trader U has attracted hundreds of thousands of visits a month, becoming the go-to resource for people wanting to build a strong, trading foundation. New Trader U offers an extensive blog resource with more than 1,000 original articles (Steve posts daily and is the author of numerous trading books).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend following
  • Taking a loss
  • Risk management
  • Proper psychology
  • Mindset
Jun 30, 2017

Chris Fussell starts the podcast explaining the process of becoming a Seal. The teams of the Special Forces do not select as much as they down select. Out of the 150 people who start a Seals class, maybe 25 will make it. The military uses rigorous training to sort out “who has it” and who doesn’t it. People have to have special inherent skills and then they are nurtured to refine those skills. A good team is made up of individuals that complement each others shortcomings and are able to magnify each others strength.

Chris stresses that these men have all the same burdens that civilians have, they just have it coupled with combat stressors as well. They deploy for an amount of time and then come how to a wife, kids, and a stack of bills. Everyone, especially soldiers, need to have a cocktail of coping tools so there is a balance between work and personal life. You can’t be amazing at work and have your family falling apart. Things will start to unravel at work rapidly.

Chris was a young officer in 2004 when the conflict in Iraq started. This was his first full scale conflict. He had the misconception that there was a set plan going in, and that all they had to do was execute that plan. Chris quickly learned he wasn’t entering a stable environment. Everyone needed to be proactive and adaptive to the war zone.

Now that Chris is helping manage a company, he uses that experience to always adapt and readjust. He realizes he needs small teams with a rapid fire adaption mentality. People need to see a problem and intuitively react to it. While in the Navy Seals they re-strategized every 24 hours. There were 6,000-7,000 people around the world sharing a consciousness every 24 hours. The most seasoned teams were able to run with speed and autonomy without checking in because of this once a day communication. They were able to make decisions on their own and be highly effective.

Chris and Michael end the podcast discussing what makes a working relationship. Relationships are grounded in knowing other perspectives. We have to be willing to see things differently and know that both individuals, when there is a disagreement, could be right. When you are on a team and leading with the perspective that everyone is part of your family, it turns teams into a more giving and trusting environment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Nature vs. Nurture
  • Inner drive
  • Self-awareness
  • Charisma
  • Learning from failure
  • Synchronicity between data and leadership
  • Zealots and martyrs
Jun 26, 2017

Fear drives all in today’s world. Two operations who have not let fear dictate their trading are Berkshire Hathaway and Dunn Capital. Both have 40+ year track records that should be studied. What was their system? How has it worked? If you look at the month by month and year by year of these two much can be learned. Both track records have not just gone up, up, up–they have had massive drawdowns (at least by the definitions of mortals) and still they have been able to persevere. No matter who you are, the ability to adapt to the markets is mission critical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Drawdowns
  • Dunn Capital performance
  • Warren Buffett performance
  • Risk management
  • Ego in trading
  • Cognitive dissidence
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Black Swans
  • Transparency
  • Critics; Trolls!
May 22, 2017

R.P. Eddy is an American businessman, venture investor, former U.S. government official and former U.N. diplomat. He is currently the CEO of Ergo, a strategy and geo political intelligence firm. R.P. is also co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.”

How did Fukushima happen? There were lots of Cassandras who knew there were issues. There were warnings thousands of years old, along with experts telling officials not to build the nuclear plant so low. Hurricane Katrina in the United States is another example where there were Cassandras who had the foresight to fix potential disaster, but were ignored. What would have happened if there was foresight to Saddam Hussein and the Kuwait invasion? A man named Charlie Allen had that foresight but was pushed aside.

With such credible people having undeniable evidence being ignored, this brings up the question: How does a dynamic change in government happen? It doesn’t. R.P. did a study finding that 1% of the public think for themselves to make informed decisions. As people turn on the T.V. or surf the internet they find biased information. It’s hard to sit down, find unbiased information and make opinions of their own. When we have Cassandras who come out with real data and information to make changes that can save thousands, it is hard to decipher if they are chicken little or the real thing.

R.P. profiled in depth Cassandras ranging from: Fukushima, Katrina, Madoff, 2008 collapse, the rise of Isis, and the invasion of Kuwait. In every instance the Cassandra went to the decision makers and asked the question, “Why are you ignoring all the data?!” The more outlandish the warning, the easier it is to be ignored. People who understand what is wrong with our brains, the ones who doubt themselves and double check data are the traders and leaders who thrive. Michael and R.P. end discussing nuclear weapons theory, North Korea, potential Cassandras, India vs. Pakistan, and why we should all stop and reassess the information that is fed us.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Indicators and warning
  • Analysis and foresight
  • Pax Americana
  • Fukushima
  • Corruption vs. competence
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Black Swans
  • 2008 collapse
Apr 21, 2017

Erik Wahl is author of “The Spark and The Grind,” “Unthink,” and “Unchain the Elephant.” Starting from an early age Erik was never encouraged in the arts but rather encouraged in his reading, writing and athletics. He believed that if he got straight A’s he would be successful later on in life. Things generally worked out for him–until the Dot-com bubble hit. He was devastated and realized he needed to figure out a new way to live.

Erik started meeting artists rather than business types. He came to find that mainstream society does not understand artists and because of this, many of these people would become, for lack of a better term, “tortured artists.” The love of art is what launched him into work as a professional artist. Art was not about producing a product but rather about a new way of thinking. He began processing information in a whole new way, not just linear.

Everyone has creative ideas. What sets people apart is how they chose to leverage and use it. When Erik does any presentation he starts off creating a painting on stage to rock music in 3 minutes. He is disrupting thinking by showing the audience rather than telling them. Unless you know how to use agility and mental dexterity you will be left behind. Erik teaches how to tap into creativity and adapt to the increasing rate of change happening in the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Dot-com bubble
  • 2008 crisis
  • Routine and structure
  • Misconceptions of overnight success
  • Embracing the grind
  • Mental agility
Apr 17, 2017

Michael’s first edition of Trend Following hit April 2004. Since both Michael and trend following were largely “under the radar at the time” the publisher did not put much money into the first edition and it was not carried in bookstores. Since it’s inception, however, Trend Following has become a bestseller with 4 editions, 100,000+ sold, and now a 5th edition out April 24, 2017. Michael goes into detail outlining this new edition (double the size) and how it gives Trend Following a whole new look and feel across 688 pages.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What went into the newest edition of trend following
  • Performance
  • Survivorship bias
  • Efficient market theory
  • Volatility
Apr 14, 2017

Mark Weatherford is an American cyber security professional who has held extremely high positions in both the public and private sector. He was appointed the first deputy under secretary for cyber security at the US Department of Homeland Security from 2011-2013. Mark brings a wealth of experience and insight into a subject that all of us should be worried about in this day and age. He gives examples of how things are unfolding in regards to the cybersecurity and steps we can take to try and mitigate risk.

The basic infrastructure of the internet is essentially the same as it was back in the 90’s. A lot of physical infrastructure hasn’t really changed for most things since they were designed, however there has been layers of technology added. Michael uses the Hoover Dam as an example of old infrastructure with new technology layered on and asks, “Is it possible for the dam’s security to be hacked?” Mark says he always works from the viewpoint that absolutely everything can be broken into.

Michael moves on to ask about Hillary Clinton’s home server and what the scandal entailed. “Puzzling” is the word that Mark uses to describe the situation. She hired a company to build an email server and essentially put it physically in her basement but managed it remotely. None of this made sense or seemed well thought out. There are plenty of things you can do to protect infrastructure and it didn’t seem that they put any of those measures in place.

Michael and Mark end on discussing the idea that intelligence is all about deception. This is one of the biggest challenges in working in cyber security — figuring out what is true and what is false.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cyber hacking
  • Hillary Clinton server scandal
  • Podesta hacking
  • Cyber security
  • “Model what you admire”
  • Partisanship in cyber security
  • Game theory
Apr 10, 2017

To celebrate my upcoming fifth edition of Trend Following (April 24, 2017)…my mega episode with Tom Basso is here again by popular demand. If you want to know the right way to think, Tom brings it. Michael plays all of Tom’s interviews back to back and throws in a bonus interview at the beginning. The bonus excerpt is a Tom Basso presentation from the early to mid 1990s.

Tom is most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s “The New Market Wizards”. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Throughout this 4 1/2 hour podcast Michael and Tom cover a broad range of topics including: Tom’s background and how he got into trading, speculation, emotional rushes, emotional devastation, catastrophic events, separating trading from politics, behavioral economics, advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry, location independence, time management, stoicism, black swans, and the importance of routine.

Michael and Tom also go through listener questions spanning topics including: trading regrets, money management vs. trading, tinkering with current systems, drawdowns, one-system vs. multiple systems, thoughts on Alan Watts, emotions during both losing and winning periods, exit strategies, practice trading vs. live trading, money management, risk control, how to handle skeptics, serenity, John W. Henry, coin flip entry method, percent betting, comfort with uncertainty, initial capital at risk vs. unrealized gains, and fighting against your gut reaction. This podcast includes a wealth of knowledge worth listening to over and over again.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Speculation
  • Fighting against emotions
  • Catastrophic events
  • Separating trading from politics
  • Advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry
  • Time Management
  • The importance of routine
  • Money management vs. Trading
Apr 7, 2017

Cass R. Sunstein is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School. He is also founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy and is the most referenced law professor in the United States. From 2009 to 2012 he served under the Obama administration as Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Cass is the author of “#Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media.”

This past Presidential election created a huge rift within parties, largely propelled by social media and even search engine interference. GOOGLE has the ability to filter your searching, pushing things that are suitable to your interests. They are walking a fine line between giving you an easier searching experience and putting you in an echo chamber and shaping how you think. Cass is a big fan of Facebook and Twitter when people are balanced with it. He uses the analogy of cars, “They are great because they get people from point A to point B, however, they do create negatives such as air pollution.” The same can be said for social media.

The founding fathers of the United States wanted a government that gave the opportunity for exposure to the uncomfortable and to have a forum where both sides could interact and hear each other. Madison and Hamilton were told that to have a self governing system it needs to be little and not diverse, but they thought that the opposite needed to happen: A self governing system needs to be large and diverse. If not, the government would end up as a echo chamber. We are now living in what Cass describes as “Hamilton’s nightmare.” Although government is diverse, people are not listening and learning from one another.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Echo chambers
  • Limiting people’s horizons
  • Hamilton’s nightmare
  • The daily me
  • Censorship
  • Bernie Sanders followers
  • Donald Trump followers
Apr 3, 2017

Michael has had some of the brightest psych minds on his podcast. Today he pulls together the great psych minds in trading into one podcast. Those interviews include: Brett Steenbarger, Jason Williams, Van Tharp, Daniel Crosby, and Meir Statman.

Brett Steenbarger is a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry at New York State University, and author of The Daily Trading Coach, The Psychology of Trading, and Enhancing Trader Performance. His newest work is Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

Jason Williams is author of The Mental Edge in Trading. Jason received his psychiatry degree at John Hopkins. His father is famed trader Larry Williams.

Van Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology.

Daniel Crosby is author of The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success, and co-author of the New York Times bestseller Personal Benchmark: Integrating Behavioral Finance and Investment Management. His background is in behavioral psychology and he sees the markets as a great backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting. He is also founder of Nocturne Capital.

Meir Statman is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University and a behavioral finance expert. His acclaimed book is titled What Investors Really Want.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Envy and happiness
  • Fear of losing vs Fear of missing out
  • Mental accounting
  • Expert discretion
  • Efficient market theory
  • Human ego
  • Warren Buffett and his trading strategy
  • Passive investing
  • Sigmund Freud’s impact on trading
  • Standard deviation as a proxy for risk
  • Matching “the benchmark”
  • Systems theory
  • Money management vs. Position sizing
  • Ed Seykota’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Tom Basso’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Yoga
  • Training your brain how to think
Mar 30, 2017

My guest today is Vanessa Van Edwards, author of Captivate. Vanessa jokes that she is a recovering awkward person and learned in college that she could apply systems thinking to people skills. Once she started making formulas around communicating with others, she found there was more people like her.

“Treat others how you would want to be treated” is the golden rule. However, that rule should be changed to, “Treat others how they would want to be treated.” We think we know how others feel but we actually have very different ways of viewing the world and how we respond. Most are far better at intuition and snap judgment if they let their bodies do the work. Vanessa gives examples of our bodies sensing intuitively that something is wrong, exciting, etc. Our heart starts to pound, our palms start to sweat, and you may start blushing when your nervous. Your body also sweats differently when you are nervous or fearful rather than sweating from a workout.

What does it mean to “Work a room?” Being a social butterfly at events meant nothing to her because she was not the most outgoing person to begin with. She ended up engaging in countless meaningless conversations that went nowhere. This prompted her to do a study on what it actually meant to work a room and what the best people do to connect and network. She found most make their first impression before they even open their mouth and that we can spark dopamine with good conversation. How do you leave typical social conversation scripts (i.e. “What do you do?” “How are you doing?” “Where are you from?”) and have meaningful talks? This is how she came up with the idea of “conversational sparks.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bringing the unconscious to the conscious
  • Confidence and lack of confidence
  • Introverts, extroverts and ambiverts
  • First impressions
  • Conversational spark
  • What makes a great presentation
Mar 27, 2017

Michael was recently interviewed by the CFA Society of Switzerland. Michael goes through the Q&A’s of his interview. Here are some of the questions:

  • When did you start trend following?
  • What do you say to trend following skeptics?
  • Do the experts you have talked to in economics, trading and psychology share any characteristics or qualities that may have contributed to their success?
  • Do many of your podcast guests, as well as yourself, have any habits that readers can emulate?
  • What are some of the books that have influenced you the most over the years?
  • What is the best advice you have ever received?

Michael finishes playing an excerpt from another interview he recently did with Bloomberg about the Turtles.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Getting what you want out of markets
  • Trend following skeptics
  • The Turtles
  • Turtle Trading 101
Mar 24, 2017

Susan Peirce Thompson is author of “Bright Line Eating.” This is a podcast all about “aha” moments. Most have no understanding of how their bodies take in, and absorb food. Susan’s BHAG (big hairy audacious goal) is to make sure that all those who want to put forth the effort of losing weight and keeping it off have a road map.

Susan had trouble losing weight starting at age 12. She found early on that the only thing that worked for her was using drugs, specifically crystal meth. During her 20’s she was able to get off the hard drugs, but then became addicted to nicotine, sex, flour, and sugar. The turning point for her was when she decided to do a bikini body 12 week challenge with her husband. They were suppose to work out 6 days a week and eat 6 times a day. Her husband did great on the program, Susan did not. She wasn’t able to keep with the eating schedule.

She ended up running into an old friend that told her about a different way of eating. Her friend gave her the cliff notes version of a no flour or sugar diet—combined with weighing your food. Susan ended up quitting the bikini challenge and started down this new path of eating. She began losing weight instantly. This lead to her going back and reverse engineering why the program worked. She started Bright line eating in 2014 and started doing a scientific study on the results of the participants.

80% of food sold in the super market has added sugar. 60% of one year olds are fed sugar every day. Susan explains why it is so hard to have the brain let go of the need for sugar. The dopamine release in sugar is the same type of dopamine release that occurs when using drugs or having sex. Doughnuts and pornography give a dopamine release that is larger than the body is trained for. What happens over time is your need for stimulation rises. There is a need to keep it sustained.

What is the solution? You need to automate your eating just like brushing your teeth is automated. There is no impulse control, just automatic. There needs to be no choosing involved. 80% execution of this program is so much harder than going 100% all in. It’s a system.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • BHAG
  • Sugar is an addiction
  • How to handle withdrawal from sugar
  • Drinking calories vs. eating calories
  • The radish study
  • Willpower is a finite resource
  • Regulating task performance
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next » 22