It was a few years ago when trader, investor, and venture capitalist Brad Rotter expressed his belief to Michael Covel that technology was arbitraging away the need for human capital. People just aren't needed anymore. This idea stuck with Covel and he explores the idea that, if people are needed less and less as technology increases, what do you do to get ahead? You can be replaced if you're working for the man. It's harder than ever to build a life around the beautiful little house and the white picket fence when your job might be taken out from under you as technology progresses. So what kind of strategy do you use in the face of that? You can become an entrepreneur. Covel thinks its one of the most exciting times ever for would-be entrepreneurs. Yes, some jobs are going away forever, but that just might be the kick in the pants you need to go and do something that matters: to make art of some kind, whether it's painting, creating software, designing a trading system, developing a new way of teaching, or trading your own account. When you're 90 years old you'll be able to day that you didn't just clock in for the man every day of your life. Who wants to be a desk jockey working for the man for minimum wage? Instead of being a cog in the wheel, you can make a new wheel. The simple notion of being an entrepreneur is the magic elixir in the face of the problem of technology arbitraging away the need for human capital: you create something new that is of value, someone buys it, and money is exchanged. The idea is that you control it. Technology can't take your place if you're bringing unique and new ideas to the table. Everyone has some sort of skill; everyone brings something to the table. But people are scared to make the leap. You have to have a belief in yourself; you can't fear failure. Making mistakes is the magic that leads you to success. If you don't have any mistakes under your belt, you have a fragile foundation. Ultimately, you can make people believe in you and compensate you for the value that you bring. All you need is your wit, your smarts, and your enterprising spirit to make something happen. DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel returns for his first podcast since going abroad in Southeast Asia. Currently in Thailand, Covel catches us up on where he's been so far. He notes the history of past conflicts in the area and his thoughts from a mountain view six-thousand feet above the ground looking onto the landscape below. Since leaving the US Covel has especially enjoyed not paying attention to the news coming from America. The idea of noise is afterall pointless from a trend following perspective. If you can get away from it, either physically (like Covel) or mentally, it's a good idea to eliminate it in your life. Along the lines of what's needed and not needed, Covel plays a video called "What Do Prices Know That You Don't?", a clip from a Duke professor that discusses relying on price to make decisions. Even though the video doesn't come from a direct trend following perspective, it illustrates the danger of too much information. It's easy to play the game of waiting for one more news report, watching one more episode of Bill O'Reilly, or trusting the promises of one last politician. That's where we are right now: we're in a game. So, if you are in a game, how do you navigate it? What do you do? What decisions do you make? And what happens when the game doesn't go the way the government has said? So, what lies ahead? Covel reads a piece of writing from Transtrend's newsletter regarding the role of the government and what you can expect, followed by a piece from John Hussman. Both readings seem to agree on one thing: something will happen at some point. Are you prepared? Or do you just want to just trust that the government will forever be able to prop up the market? Hussman makes the point to not follow prices, which Covel disagrees with--if the Chinese stock market is going up, you want to be long. The issue isn't what to do in a market that's going up; the issue is having an exit strategy. Covel's view is to be long and be happy in a rising market, but have an exit strategy. That's the solution. If you can't wrap your arms around that you might think about getting out of the markets completely. Even if you don't ultimately adopt a trend following strategy, if you're going to be trading, it's of dire importance to understand the concept of trend following. It's essential to have it in your arsenal of tools. Covel wraps up and shares some other observations about Asia, his upcoming presentations abroad, announces an upcoming audiobook version of The Complete TurtleTrader, and discusses what you can expect from the podcast in the coming months. Want a free trend following DVD? Visit trendfollowing.com/win.