Michael Covel interviews Al Abaroa today. Abaroa is Chief Investment Strategist at Kingsview and has been a registered broker and trader since 1993. He has seen all aspects of the investing industry. Today, Covel and Abaroa talk about a white paper that Abaroa wrote about trend following. Abaroa and Covel discuss how people forget that anything can and will happen; why we’re seeing optimistic behavior in the market; the similarities between the WhatsApp/Facebook acquisition and the AOL/Time Warner acquisition; Abaroa’s wealth formula; “reasonable returns”; long term vs. short term outlooks; the advantages of youth in trading; lifespan growth, and retirement; Tom Basso and black swan events; looking back on major crashes; development and distribution as the two modalities of price; focusing on price action; the Global Volatility Index; looking at black swan periods as a place to profit; the asymmetrical return stream and the asymmetrical nature of trend following; why trend following produces returns a minority of the time; position sizing; fixed contract allocation vs. fixed fractional contract allocation and their role in position sizing; trend following investors and market timing; seeking immediate gratification in trend following investments; and looking at trend following track records. Abaroa can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org and the white paper discussed can be found at www.michaelcovel.com. Want a free trend following DVD go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel opens up with an excerpt from “River Deep, Mountain High”. A lyric invented for a bubble. Covel moves into a description of a trend following firm with a long track record and discusses their history and key features. Covel notes location independence, consistency, cutting your losses short, taking on volatility, being able to take advantage of outlier moves, and being 100% systematic. Covel also discuses being agnostic to which markets that allow you to make your money, as well as being agnostic to market direction and which markets you have in your portfolio. In reaction to a critical e-mail, Covel plays a clip of Charlie Rose talking to recent podcast guest Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman discusses trading, the ability to make money in the markets, prediction/forecasting, “Moneyball” by Michael Lewis, and Kahneman’s view on all of these. Covel also moves on and talks about his role as a curator. Want a free trend following DVD go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with Jonathan Hoenig. Hoenig is a regular on many news and cable news shows--you’ve seen him everywhere over the past decade. However, he got his start on the Chicago trading floors, and he talks to Covel today about his new documentary, “Pit Trading 101”. Covel and Hoenig talk about Hoenig’s branding for his hedge fund, Capitalist Pig; why capitalism has become demonized; the difference between capitalism and crony capitalism; Ayn Rand and capitalism as the “unknown ideal”; how Hoenig ended up in the Chicago trading pits, and what we can learn from studying pit trading today; the physical type of pit traders; the subculture of the pits; where Hoenig sees futures markets going; the blame of speculators; and America’s place in the world today. Want a free trend following DVD go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Daniel Kahneman has been called the most important psychologist alive today and joins Michael Covel on the podcast. Kahneman is the 2002 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Together, Covel and Kahneman discuss Kahneman’s beginnings, and how he came to realize he was looking at the world from a different vantage point than most; how Kahneman’s work is foundational to trading; questioning the dogma of rationality; happiness, and the distinction between the remembering self and the experiencing self; the consumption of memories; the danger not making peace with a loss; bubbles and crowd behavior; happiness research and public policy; emotion, possibility, and probability; hope and fear; why optimism is the engine of capitalism; and the influence of prospect theory. Want a free trend following DVD go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks with John Bollinger on today’s podcast. Bollinger is responsible for a technical indicator that just about everyone has heard of: Bollinger Bands. Bollinger has been popularizing price-based indicators since the early 1980s, and Bollinger Bands arose from the need for adaptive trading bands and the observation that volatility was dynamic, not static, as was widely believed at that time. Covel and Bollinger discuss Bollinger Bands as described for the lay person; defining when a price is relatively high or relatively low; defining “relatively high” and “relatively low”; measuring volatility to determine the “width” of a Bollinger Band; standard deviation; the beginnings of Bollinger Bands, and how John Bollinger came to put it together; different ideas about volatility in the 1980s; some of Bollinger’s early curiosity triggers, and why he started digging into finance after going to art school; light, film, and Bollinger’s experience at the School of Visual Arts; Bollinger’s experience in his apprenticeship to learn technical analysis; “the best authority is the price itself”, and why this statement isn’t very well accepted in the mainstream; differences between fundamental and technical analysts; Bollinger’s look at media and the presentation of his message over the years; why Bollinger would be known as a quantitative analyst instead of a technician if he started his career now; position sizing; and why volatility is the least understood aspect of the market. More information on John Bollinger can be found at www.bollingerbands.com. Want a free trend following DVD go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel reflects on the recent guests he’s had since his last monologue, including guests like Ed Seykota. Covel discusses Seykota’s book, “Govopoly”, and how government and crony capitalism is eating the US from the inside-out. If you have to navigate a system like this, that’s unpredictable at its essence, there’s no better way to maneuver around the chaos than with trend following. Covel discusses how trend following, and being an entrepreneur, gives you freedom. Covel moves on to talks about the 2014 conference in Singapore, where Covel is preparing to have some of the best and brightest names in trend following. Covel then plays a clip from CNBC featuring David Harding. Covel discusses the clip and gives his commentary, discussing momentum and trend following in Harding’s own work, and how the talking heads just don’t get it. Covel questions why CNBC would bring on someone and act like they have no idea of what he does, and spends some time exploring why CNBC would have someone on and ask the questions they ask. Harding also interestingly notes that he is not at the particular conference he is at to learn strategy; Covel explores why Harding might not want to learn strategy at a conference with some of the world’s most powerful people, and what this might mean to the young trader.
Michael Covel talks with Dave Rapach, a professor of economics at the John Cook School of Business at Saint Louis University. Rapach comes at trend following from an academic perspective, and he explains it from this vantage point. Covel and Rapach discuss why trend following works from an academic standpoint; "publish or perish" and the difficulty of publishing scholarly articles on trend following; early research on trend following, the random walk theory, and Burton Malkiel’s “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”; Warren Buffett, Bill Dunn, and survivorship bias; a paper that Rapach traces to the reintroduction of trend following and technical analysis to the academic community; measuring systematic risk; Eugene Fama’s recent nobel prize; how the trend following world has been neglected by the academic community; how Rapach found his way into the academic finance world; Covel’s experience digging in to trend following research in the early to mid 1990’s; some of Rapach’s recent papers; and why recessions are good for trend following. For more information on Dave Rapach, visit http://sites.slu.edu/rapachde. Want a free trend following DVD go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Ed Seykota. Seykota was famously first featured in the original “Market Wizards” book. He’s also appeared in Covel’s “Trend Following”. Covel considers Ed a friend and a mentor, and Seykota has provided a major influence on Covel’s work. Their conversation today gets into a bit of trend following, but it’s mostly about Seykota’s new book, “Govopoly”. Together, Covel and Seykota discuss Seykota’s concerns about our economy; the assimilation model and how Seykota sees assimilation happening today; the definition of “govopoly”; how Seykota’s mentor’s work plays into Seykota’s work today; thinking about systems; what we can do to “fix” the economy, or to at least prepare yourself; the exponential curve that assimilation takes; noticing things before they’re important; why Seykota doesn’t provide a “solution” to the problem and instead advocates for the system to correct itself; what we can do as people in response to the system; Detroit as a microcosm of the US; and ways to make money during the assimilation.
Michael Covel interviews Dominic Frisby, a self-proclaimed accidental financial bod, comedian, actor of unrecognized genius, voice of many things, & presenter. His new book is called “Life After The State”. Covel and Frisby talk about Frisby’s beginnings as an actor and comedian; what comedy can teach us about finance and the discipline of clarity; how Cuba’s currency confusion led the nation to unfortunate circumstances; real estate; other peoples’ trust in the state; how the poor and needy would be cared for in a society without a state; the monopoly on compassion; how the state takes a piece of everything; “greed is good”, “money is the root of all evil”, etc; crony capitalism; predation vs. productivity; the influence of lobbyists; the duopoly on money by banks and the state; education; Bitcoin, digital currency, and taxation. For more information on Dominic Frisby, visit www.dominicfrisby.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.