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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Apr 19, 2019

Rich Karlgaard is a journalist, entrepreneur, and speaker. He has been with Forbes for 27 years and became publisher of Forbes magazine in 1998. Rich has written three books, “Life 2.0: How People Across America Are Transforming Their Lives by Finding the Where of Their Happiness,” and “The Soft Edge: Where Great Companies Find Lasting Success.” His latest book is “Late Bloomers: The Power of Patience in a World Obsessed with Early Achievement.”

What was the trigger that pushed Rich to write “Late Bloomers?” Rich grew up as a late bloomer himself. He was at non-fulfilling “dead end jobs” up until his late 20’s, even with gaining a college degree. He doesn’t see his 20’s as a time of being lazy or having a lack of motivation, he simply didn’t feel like he was ready to enter the adult world. He also has two children whom he raises in Silicon Valley. He knows the added pressures being put on children and what those repercussions look like– from low self esteem to even suicide in teenagers. He felt a need to point out some of the major misconceptions adults may have about schools, tests, and the learning curve in each child.

Rich makes arguments for gap years, mandatory military service, and reforming how we look at academic tests. Americans are slipping every year compared to other counties and their youth. This has trickled into human resources and legal sides of companies that have turned to ranking employees with more tests and categorizing personalities based off data. Rich’s books, articles, and speeches also primarily focus on fundamentals of business, necessity of constant innovation, and the importance of building the right corporate culture.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Late bloomers
  • Kylie Jenner
  • SAT scores
  • Importance of high IQ
  • Sports Illustrated
  • Passion vs. Mission
  • Gap years
  • West coast offense and Bill Walsh
  • Mike Milken
Apr 15, 2019

The trading author Jack Schwager helped launch this podcast. Enjoy!

Apr 12, 2019

Lori Gottlieb is a psychotherapist, New York Times bestselling author, and a weekly advice column writer for The Atlantic titled, “Dear Therapist”. Her most recent book, “Maybe You Should Talk to Someone” (set for release in April, 2019), is not about getting people to go to therapy but rather to reflect on their lives – to be more open with the people around them. Lori also shows patients, through her book, that she herself is human and has issues in her own life relatable to most everyone.

What got Lori interested in psychotherapy? She had other careers leading up to becoming a therapist. She was a T.V. executive, went to medical school in her late 20’s, became a journalist, and then went back to school for clinical psychology. With help from her Dean at Stanford, she realized that she was searching for a more personal connection in her work – clinical psychology was a perfect match for her.

When most think about the idea of seeking a psychologist for help, they look at it as a sign as weakness. When it comes to emotional help people become closed off or don’t think they have a valid enough reason to be depressed. How does Lori help clients get past these social biases? She helps clients work through their problems by seeing personal blind spots and how they might be sabotaging themselves with crutches in their lives. But, most of all, she shows them how to grow through connection with others.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Calculated risk
Idiot compassion vs. wise compassion
Loneliness epidemic
“Them and Us” mentality
Speed of want
24-hour news cycle

Apr 8, 2019

The Alternative Thinking Universities Shun with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 5, 2019

Brent Huigens is an entrepreneur in the world of trading cards. He is founder and president of PWCC Marketplace, the largest seller of investment trading cards globally with more than $50 million in annual revenue. In 1998 Brent founded PWCC to provide buyers and sellers an efficient, honest and predictable marketplace. In 2012, he set his current engineering career aside to pursue the growth of PWCC full time.

When did Brent collect his first playing card? From the early age of about five he never wanted anything other than trading cards for his birthday or Christmas. He was hooked from the beginning. He had a modest card collection growing up, but it wasn’t until his early teenage years that his collection had grown to something he was proud of. Brent had a family friend that aided him in taking his collection to the next level–that same family friend also introduced him, in 1998, to the internet and eBay. By age 20, he was selling hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading cards all while gaining two engineering degrees.

Trading cards date back to the 1800’s–originally made as a means to getting another product sold. They were produced to be put inside tobacco products, then ventured into cracker jacks and later in gum. In the 1980’s trading cards started to gain speed and were printed off on a broader scale. With the internet, eBay, and professional grading, Brent was able to see the unbridled future in the investment aspect of trading cards. Professional grading and the internet have made the trading card game more liquid and opened up the game to investors by giving them a way to trust in their investment without ever seeing it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Card trading
eBay
Professional grading
Impact of the internet on trading cards
Auctions trading

Mar 31, 2019

Eclectic Mega Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio featuring:

  • William Poundstone
  • Michael Mauboussin
  • Charles Poliquin
  • Steven Pinker
Mar 29, 2019

Bill Wooditch is author of “Fail More: Embrace, Learn, and Adapt to Failure As a Way to Success” and a motivational speaker with a risk and financial background. He is founder and CEO of The Wooditch Group, a risk-management and corporate insurance firm. He mentors and teaches clients skills to harness the lessons of failure to create success driven opportunities. His approach is a physical, intellectual, spiritual and emotional journey based on 25 years of real life experience.

Bill’s first job out of college was at Liberty Mutual making insurance cold calls. It wasn’t a job he necessarily wanted, but it was an opportunity that he was determined to make work. On Bill’s desk, he had a ruler that read, “Activity Rules Success”. He made that phrase his motto for his work at Liberty – making the most calls he could everyday and noting what worked and didn’t. He figured that if he had the most activity and just kept pushing, he would eventually have a break though – and he did.

“What do you really want?” Bill uses this question often in presentations. Most are too afraid to do whatever it takes to make it. Perseverance has gone by the wayside and most want the easy job or quick success without the work. Bill has lots of “get tough” talks and works to put people in a growth mindset rather than a fixed mindset. With everyone having their own internal version of success, Bill teaches that first knowing: 1) What you are, and 2) Who you are, is how progress is made in figuring out how to reach that success.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Venture capital mindset
Risk
The power of reading
Pre-internet
Short-term thinking
Steven King
Keith Richards
Growth mindset vs. fixed mindset

Mar 25, 2019

Not One Market with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 22, 2019

Safi Bahcall is an American technologist, business executive, and author. He has presented at over 130 banking conferences, investor events, and medical meetings around the world, as well as at leading academic institutions. His book “Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries” is out.

Safi grew up with parents who were highly acclaimed physicists. He was indoctrinated with the mindset of looking at the world and asking, “Why?” Even to this day, he has those discussions of asking, “Why” with his parents. It has given him an inquisitive perspective – always looking at things from multiple angles.

What is a loonshot? Loonshots are how big achievements, money, fame and recognition are produced. They are leaps of faith grounded in asking good questions. In keeping a questioning mindset you may find the twist that gives you the answer to what everyone else is missing. This asking mindset can be applied across all fields – military, government, technology, medicine, politics, social media, etc. Safi exposes some of these loonshots with examples going back to Alexander Graham Bell, WWII, Apple and many others.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Social media companies
Loonshots
National research system of the U.S.
Leader mindsets
Innovation
Good companies vs. Failing companies
Early stage ideas
Apple
Steve Jobs
AT&T
Bell Labs

Mar 18, 2019

Trend Commandments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 15, 2019

Dana Cavalea is the former strength, conditioning and performance coach for the New York Yankees and author of, “Habits of a Champion, Nobody Becomes a Champion By Accident.” He started in baseball as an underperforming player, knowing he would never make it to the major leagues. In 2002, at 19 years old, he was given the opportunity to be a towel/weight room cleanup guy for the Yankee’s – he quickly jumped at the chance.

How did Dana make the move from towel guy to strength and conditioning coach? Core and functional training was just taking off in the world of sports. He committed himself to learning everything he could in that sports niche. Players would give him the chance to teach them different stretching techniques (on the side of their other training). His tips were working and players confidence in him and his confidence in himself snowballed.

Dana gave players two things other trainers weren’t providing: 1. He could find immediate ways to locate and alleviate pain. He took players like Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter and found where their pain was and gave them tips and tricks to help relieve some pain to get them on the field for their next game. 2. He built relationships with players outside of the stadium. Dana would go to breakfast, lunch and dinner with players and gain comradeship. When players know, like and trust you, you win them over.

As a New York native Dana grew up loving the game of baseball. And as a player himself, he always wanted to know what the pros “edge” was. His new book (and this podcast) is packed full of how players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada think. He shares what gives baseball’s elite players the edge needed to be a winner–lessons we can all use baseball players or not.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Importance of routine
Derek Jeter
Talent vs. work ethic in pro sports
Science behind training
Yoga
Mindfulness
Meditation
Downshifting the nervous system

Mar 11, 2019

TurtleTrader with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 8, 2019

Eric Dugan is founder of 3D Capital Management, where he runs two primary intraday systems: short-biased S&P 500 and long-short trend following S&P 500 using multiple global markets as inputs and indicators. His systems analyze the flow of markets around the world and attempt to identify how the action in a certain market will impact the S&P during U.S. trading hours. Eric has not missed a trading day since the inception of 3D Capital Management 11 years ago.

Eric had been working construction in 1992 when his best friend moved to Chicago to trade. Shortly after his friend left, he reached back out to Eric to give him a job. December of 1992 was Eric’s first visit to Chicago for an interview with famed trader Monroe Trout, and in January of 1993 he began his first day ever trading for Trout Trading.

Because Trout was a systematic trader, there was no real need to know “what” a trader was going to do, other than trade the system. Eric’s lack of knowledge of markets when he first started did not matter because the system was king. Eric worked for Trout Trading from 1993 – 1999. When Eric started he had zero experience and within a year he was manager of Pacific Rim desk at Trout Trading. He quickly learned how to identify weakness in the stock market, which has become his greatest asset throughout his career.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Risk Control
Identifying trends
Profiting from weakness in the stock market
Trading world markets
Buying high and selling higher

Mar 4, 2019

Trend Following Fifth Edition with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 1, 2019

Daphne Chua has completed over 2,000 hours of teacher trainings and taught over 3,000 hours in classes, private sessions, special needs yoga, workshops, retreats, and teacher trainings. She is a certified yoga therapist, movement educator, body worker, Anusara Inspired™ teacher, E-RYT500 Yoga Alliance Continuing Education Provider (YACEP), and has been running her own embodiment and inquiry-based therapeutic training modules for the last 3 years.

Yoga is a practice of the body and mind connection. It helps people understand their bodies and relationships better. Most come into yoga for physical practice first, and later are drawn in deeper for the positive psychological effects. The body goes through different shapes, poses and forms that trigger the mind.

What happens chemically when leaving a massage or yoga class? What leaves a student in a state of euphoria? When working with the body there is constant chemical changes taking place. It all comes back to breath. When anxious or stressed there is shallow breathing that occurs and is concentrated in the upper chest area. Once the breath and circulation starts flowing, the mind gets more clear and focused. We begin to see the world as it is rather than over analyzing and focusing on trivial things. Breath gives fresh perspective. Throughout Daphne’s practice her therapy sessions, classes, workshops, and trainings focus on breath and awareness of the mind-body connection.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Yoga therapy
Psychology behind yoga
Addiction
Breath
Yoga tool kits
Present moment

Feb 25, 2019

A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 22, 2019

Peter Borish is chief strategist of Quad Capital. He is a trading coach, helps recruit new traders and develop the company’s trading strategy. He also is a founding member of the Robin Hood Foundation. The Robin Hood Foundation has made great strides in their charity work and continue to do bigger and better things. Peter believes that the quality of life for those around you is much more important than the material possessions that can be accumulated.

What has been a big change over the course of Peter’s career when looking at his younger trading days up until now? When he was younger he took greater risks because he had more time to recover potential losses. He was applying innovative techniques at high costs and was ok with doing that. He tells his clients two things: 1) Never minimize the pain when looking backwards from a positive outcome and 2) If you survive, you win.

What advice does Peter give to the younger generation of traders trying to make it on Wall Street? Relationships matter. When you are younger and have success you think that success is going to continue. The markets are a humbling place and you will not always win. Peter has learned that building those personal relationships gets traders through the down times. Those connections need to be cultivated because you never know when that time will pay off.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Compounding
  • Individual responsibility for retirement
  • Tax rates
  • Robin Hood
  • Paul Tudor Jones
  • High frequency trading
  • Risk management
  • Game theory
  • AI in trading
Feb 18, 2019

Creativity Wins with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 15, 2019

Ethan Kross is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan. His research seeks to “Understand factors enabling people to adaptively regulate triggered impulses and emotions that undermine their goals and compromise their health.” He wants to resolve a key paradox in coping literature by finding insights and translating those insights to the rest of the world.

What got Ethan into studying behavior and how the mind works? Around the age of 4 or 5, whenever Ethan would get upset, his dad would ask him to “go inside” and look within himself to figure out why he was feeling how he was feeling. For years Ethan would do this as a positive coping mechanism. When he got to college he learned that when most look inside themselves to dig deeper, this takes them to a negative place. Introspection seemed to only prolong their negative feelings. This resonated with him and started him down his current path of asking “Why?”

Much of his work is focused on social media. In early 2010 Ethan became increasingly interested in Facebook. He found himself looking around his classroom and in the hallway–relentlessly seeing students with open Facebook windows on their phone. He wondered: “Are these students happier now that they have social media in their lives?” Ethan started digging and found research that was all over the place. Some studies would say, “People who are on Facebook are more happy” and then he would come across another study saying the complete opposite. He concluded that the methods in which those studies were using to gather data were grossly inefficient.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Thinking objectively
Passive and interactive activities on social media
Experian sampling
Regulation on social media
LeBron James move from the Cavaliers
Self talk
Dealing with problems under stressed.

Feb 11, 2019

Follow Your Effort Not Your Passion with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 8, 2019

Aaron Dignan is founder of The Ready, former CEO of Undercurrent and author of “Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization?” Aaron advises management teams at GE, American Express, PepsiCo, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and The Cooper Hewitt National Design Museum – just to name a few.

What got Aaron heading down the path of innovation? From an early age he was interested in human potential. He always wanted to know: What am I capable of? Aaron started a few companies and quickly learned what an unsustainable operating system looked like. After 8 years running his company he realized there was too much work fully dependent on him and knew something needed to change if his company was ever going to grow. Aaron took a step back and searched out what would happen if he let go of the reigns a little. He looked at various systems in nature that didn’t have traditional leaders, as well as companies that had done great things operating in non-traditional ways. His company now has the mission statement of “Change how the world works.”

Aaron approaches bureaucracy in business by way of his idea of the “OS Canvas.” OS Canvas is a framework and tool that reflects and evolves an organization’s operating system through 12 critical fields: Purpose, authority, structure, strategy, resources, innovation, workflow, meetings, information, membership, mastery, and compensation. Each field can be used to clarify and provoke principles and practices upon which everything runs. With his operating system he helps companies and individuals answer the question: What is stopping you from doing the best work of your life?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Innovation
  • Bureaucracy
  • Bottlenecks in decision making
  • Quarterly statements
  • Operating system canvas
Feb 4, 2019

If It Keeps Giving Your More Love Go with It More with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 31, 2019

Walter Williams is a professor, economist, commentator and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his libertarian views.

What has been the driving force behind Professor Williams and his clear economic way of thinking? He attributes it to being 83, growing up as a black man who didn’t have good grades handed to him, getting an education before political correctness was a “thing” and his education/professors at UCLA.

Professor Williams has a very clear view on the state of America via socialism, racism, feminism, free speech, and economics. So how does Walter feel about socialism? He believes nothing in this world is free. It may have the cost of $0 but it is costing someone, something, somewhere. Socialism changes the human nature of wanting more for oneself. And free speech? He feels there is increasing contempt among people. Most of mans history has a trend of arbitrary abuse and control by others. So which way is America headed?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Socialism
Racism
Feminism
Hidden Agendas of the wealthy and political
Liberty
Censorship
Blacks and liberalism

Jan 28, 2019

Speculative Wisdom with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 25, 2019

Kyle Nel is CEO and co-founder of Uncommon Partners, served as executive director for Lowe’s Innovation Labs, co-creator of Neurons, Inc., sits on the boards of various emerging tech companies, and a faculty member at Singularity University. His newest book is “Leading Transformation: How to Take Charge of Your Company’s Future.”

Everything starts with a narrative. It doesn’t matter how old you are, what religion you practice or what part of the world you live in – people live off stories. We take all stories, fiction and non-fiction, and relate them back to our lives. Stories are how humans interpret and accept new information.

Kyle went back in time, looked at the data and saw that every big movement was backed by motivation, cognition and a story. He would give presentation after presentation and see no change in behavior by his audience, until he started putting narratives behind what he was speaking on. His audience was suddenly able to make it relatable to them, and therefore believable and actionable.

Kyle focuses on helping companies break down the steps to building a strategic narrative, breaking bottlenecks and figuring out who and where the influencers are in their business niche. After laying out the steps for his clients he writes their archetype. Kyle knows that we live in an exponential world, and need to look at the market opportunistically. Good companies that incrementally improve year to year are looking at almost certain failure. He helps guide his clients to make those exponential leaps.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Strategic thinking
Creating narratives in business
Incremental thinking
Breaking bottlenecks
Linear paths
Exponential paths
Neuroscience
Behavioral science

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